电力系统随机生产模拟的稀疏卷积递推法

A sparse recursive convolution method for power systems stochastic production simulation

等效电量函数法是电力系统随机生产模拟的实用高效方法,但在计算失负荷概率(Loss Of Load Probability,LOLP)指标时可能存在精度不高的问题。利用实际电力系统中持续负荷曲线的台阶状特征,引入基准单位将拐点横坐标整数化,提出了用于电力系统随机生产模拟的稀疏卷积递推法。该方法采用变宽度矩形描述持续负荷曲线,充分利用了拐点横坐标在整数空间中分布的稀疏性,计算时间对基准单位的取值不敏感,比较适用于系统规模较大、对LOLP指标计算精度要求较高的场合。最后通过对IEEE-RTS79系统及其修正和扩大系统的仿真测试验证了所提方法的准确性及效率。

Equivalent energy function method is practical and efficient in power system stochastic production simulation. However, it may result in low accuracy when applied to calculate the loss of load probability （LOLP） index. Using the step-shaping feature of the load duration curve for an actual power system, the abscissas of inflexion are rounded to integers by introducing reference unit. Furthermore, a sparse recursive convolution method is proposed for power systems stochastic production simulation. By describing the load duration curve with variable-width rectangles, it makes full use of the sparse feature of the inflection point distribution in the integer space. The computational time required by the proposed method is insensitive to the values of reference unit. It is more applicable for a large scale power system that requires a higher accuracy of LOLP index. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are verified by simulations on the IEEE-RTS79 system and its modified and expanded systems.