“特朗普经济学”框架下的美国宏观经济政策分析

An Analysis of the U.S. Macroeconomic Policies in Trumponomics

根据当前的经济数据判断,美国经济预计在未来两年内仍将保持弱势复苏的态势,与"特朗普经济学"所预期的实现GDP每年增长3%的目标存在一定差距。"特朗普经济学"框架下的宏观经济政策将围绕贸易保护、税收改革、加强基础设施建设和放松金融监管四个核心展开。本文分析了特朗普政府的贸易政策、财政政策、金融监管改革政策以及美联储的货币政策,认为特朗普政府的贸易政策在短期内可能有利于净出口的增长,但从长期看,这是逆全球化的焚林竭泽之举;受制于财政赤字和债务上限,减税和增加基础设施建设投资对拉动经济增长的效果存在不确定性;放松监管有益于通过释放金融活力促进经济增长,但也可能诱发系统性的金融风险。货币政策相对独立,加息与缩表将以渐进、缓慢的方式进行。

The U.S. Economy is expected to maintain a weak recovery growth over the next two years, and there will be a gap between the Trumponomics＇3 percent GDP growth target and the real GDP growth rate. The U.S. macroeconomic policies, including Trump government＇s trade policy, fiscal policy and financial regulatory policy, as well as Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy, will be put forward aiming at trade protection, tax reform, infrastructure investment and financial regulatory reform. Trump＇s trade policy may be positive for increasing the net export in the short term, but is a de-globalization policy which will harm the U.S. economy in the long term. Under the constraint of fiscal deficit and debt limit, the effect of cutting tax and increasing infrastructure investment to spur economic growth is uncertain. Financial regulatory reform is expected not only to encourage economic growth by deregulating financial institutions but also to increase systemic financial risk. The Fed＇s monetary policy is relatively independent, and the policy normalization will be implemented by raising interest rates and reducing the Fed＇s balance sheet in a gradual manner.