出口增长能缓解工业行业的产能过剩吗?——基于山东省2003-2014年数据的考察

Can Export Growth Reduce Industrial Overcapacity: Based on Shandong Data Investigation from 2003 to 2014

2008年国际金融危机后,山东省部分工业行业的产能过剩问题逐渐凸显,并越来越成为经济运行中诸多问题的根源。文章通过随机前沿分析并综合考虑供给和需求,利用山东省2003-2014年27个工业行业的面板数据测算了产能过剩指数,结果表明,由于生产中的技术无效加之供大于求,样本期内山东省工业行业存在普遍的产能过剩。更进一步,使用动态面板模型测算了出口需求等因素对产能过剩的影响,结果显示,在控制了投资比重、劳动投入等因素后,出口增长可以在一定程度上缓解山东省工业企业的产能过剩。

Since the 2008 international financial crisis, the problem of overcapacity in some Shandong industrial sectors has been increasingly prominent and has become the source of many problems in economic operation. Through stochastic frontier analysis and with supply and demand comprehensively considered, the overcapacity indexes are calculated based on the panel data of Shandong 27 industries from 2003 to 2014. The results show that during the sample period, there exists a widespread overcapacity in the Shandong industrial sectors because the technology in production is invalid and supply exceeds demand. Furthermore, the effects of such factors as export demand on overcapacity is calculated via dynamic panel model, and the results show that export growth can alleviate to a certain extent the overcapacity of Shandong industrial enterprises after such factors as investment proportion and labor input are controlled