海南芒果寒害保险合同费率厘定与修正研究

Determination and Revision of the Pure Premium Rates of Cold Damage of Mango in Hainan Island

利用海南岛1990—2010年的芒果产量数据和1961—2010年的气象数据,计算了芒果的寒害减产历史序列,应用极值理论构建了产量风险分布模型,依此对各市(县)纯保险费率进行了厘定。并根据寒害的气象风险与产量风险区划成果,通过聚类分析得到区域风险系数,对纯保险费率进行修正,确定了不同免赔额下海南各市(县)芒果寒害保险的纯保险费率。结果表明:不同免赔额下白沙、琼中、五指山和澄迈的纯保险费率最高,说明其寒害风险最高,儋州、临高、屯昌的纯保险费率次之,风险也较高,这与气象指标统计的寒害风险基本一致,说明中部和西北部的芒果种植受寒害影响较大,适合采用高免赔额的费率标准。本研究中纯保险费率是根据气象资料计算而得的,避免了因采用产量资料出现资料短而不稳定的问题,可以有效的防止逆向选择和道德风险,有利于其他热带水果气象指数保险产品设计的借鉴,并使更多的农户参与到保险中来。

Historical sequences of Mango yield reduction caused by cold damage were calculated based on thedata of yield during 1990—2010 and the data of weather of 18 cities/countries in Hainan Island from 1961 to 2010, and the distribution models of yield risk were constructed by applying extreme value theory to determinethe pure premium rates of the study areas. Then, according to Mango cold damage risk and yield risk division,regional risk factors were calculated by clustering analysis to revise the pure premium rates, and the revisedpure premium rates were the pure premium rates of cold damage of Mango under different deductibles in thestudy areas. The result showed that under different deductibles, the areas with the highest pure premium rateswere Baisha, Qiongzhong, Wuzhishan and Chengmai that located in the middle and north of Hainan Island,indicating the highest cold damage risk in these areas. The pure premium rates in Danzhou, Lingao andTunchang were slightly lower. This result agreed with the risk of cold damage in weather analysis, showing thatMango planting in the middle and northwest of Hainan Island suffered more from cold damage and was suitablefor the standard rates of high deductibles. In this study, the pure premium rates were calculated based on longsequences of meteorological data, which could avoid the problem of insufficient and unstable output data, andeffectively prevent the adverse selection and moral hazard. The study can provide certain references for the design of meteorological index insurance product for other tropical fruits, and encourage more farmers to beinvolved in the insurance.