山东省产业结构演化与水环境质量的关联分析——基于VAR模型

Analysis of Relationship Between Industrial Structure Evolution and Water Environment Quality in Shandong Province——Based on VAR Model

区域产业结构与水环境质量间具有双向约束关系。基于2001—2015年山东省产业结构与水环境质量的相关数据,利用VAR模型,采用脉冲响应和方差分解揭示了山东省产业结构演化和水环境质量的关联关系。结果表明:产业结构演化与水环境质量之间存在协整关系,表现为长期均衡稳定的关系;产业结构变化会减少氨氮排放量、化学需氧量排放量,能较好地改善水环境质量;产业结构变化会增加废水排放量,但是随着产业结构不断变化废水排放量呈递减趋势;水环境质量对产业结构演化的制约和促进作用较微弱。

There was a bidirectional constraint relationship between the evolution of industrial structure and the quality of water environment. The VAR model was established based on the data of industrial structure and water environment quality of Shandong Province in 2001 - 2015. The rela- tionship between industrial structure evolution and water environmental quality was analyzed by impulse response function and variance decomposition function. The main conclusions were as follow：In the long term, there was a co - integration relationship between the evolution of industrial structure and water quality. Changes in the industrial structure would reduce the ammonia emissions, COD emissions could better improve the quality of water environment. The change of industrial structure would increase the discharge of waste water, but with the change of industrial structure, the discharge of waste water would be reduced. The effect of water environment on the evolution of industrial structure was weak.