安徽省农业气象灾害时间分布特征与灰色关联分析

Agro-meteorological Disasters in Anhui: Temporal Distribution Characteristics and Grey Correlation Analysis

为了探寻安徽省农业气象灾害的分布特点以及各种气象灾害对粮食生产的影响,本研究基于安徽省1992—2012年有关气象灾害数据,对4种主要气象灾害(旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、霜冻灾)的分布特征进行统计分析,并采用灰色关联分析研究其对安徽省粮食单产的影响。结果表明:1992—2012年,安徽省气象灾害具有发生频率高、波动大的特点,但整体上呈下降趋势。旱灾和水灾是发生面积较大的气象灾害,且常在时间上交织、空间上并存。灰色关联分析表明,4种气象灾害对粮食产量影响顺序:风雹灾>水灾>旱灾>霜冻灾,说明风雹灾是影响粮食产量最主要的气象灾害,其次是水灾、旱灾,霜冻灾影响较小。本研究可为安徽省防灾减灾措施的制定提供决策依据。

The paper aims to explore the distribution characteristics of agro-meteorological disasters in Anhui and the impact on grain yield. Based on the meteorological disaster data from 1992 to 2012 in Anhui, the authors analyzed the distribution characteristics of 4 agro-meteorological disasters （including drought, flood, wind-hail and frost）, and studied the effects of these 4 disasters on grain yield per unit area by using grey correlation analysis. The results showed that： agro-meteorological disasters occurred frequently and fluctuated greatly from 1992 to 2012, presenting a declining trend; drought and flood were the main agro-meteorological disasters which happened in large areas, and they often coexisted in same time and space; gray correlation analysis indicated that： the impact of agro-meteorological disasters on average grain yield appeared in the order of wind-hail〉flood〉drought〉frost, which revealed wind-hail was the major agro-meteorological disaster affecting grain yield, followed by flood and drought, and the impact of the frost was the least. The results can provide decision-making basis for disaster nreventian and mitigation in the future.