基于演化博弈的工程总承包模式推广分析

An Analysis of Promoting Project Delivery Approach Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

推广工程总承包模式既符合工程项目组织实施方式改革的要求,也是国内建筑行业转型升级的迫切需要。在分析工程总承包模式推广所面临的国内和国际市场机遇与当前实施困境的基础上,运用制度变迁理论阐明了工程总承包市场的转变途径,即由强制性变迁向诱致性变迁的轨迹演变。通过构建"政府—业主"演化博弈模型,得出稳态平衡策略为政府激励业主,业主为追求最大利润而进行模式推广,从而扩大市场需求,实现市场诱致性变迁过渡。并提出了增加财政金融激励、完善市场制度环境、提升国际交流力度、构建完善信息平台等对策建议。

Promoting project delivery approach is not only meeting the requirement of reform process of project organization,but also an urgent need of transformation and upgrade of the construction industry in China. This paper firstly uses the theory of institutional changing to analyze transformation path of project delivery approach,i.e.,from mandatory change model to induced change model. By building a ＂government-owner＂ evolutionary game model,the steady-state equilibrium strategy is that government shall encourage owners to promote the approach for profit. To achieve this,the paper finally provides some suggestions,such as increasing fiscal and financial incentives,perfecting the market environment,enhancing international exchanges,and building an integrated information platform.