基于社会折现率视角的消费与投资利率变动分析

Analysis of the Structure of the Interest Rate of Consumption and Investment from the Perspective of Social Discount Rate

在梳理社会折现率相关测算方法的基础上,对全国及各地区的社会折现率进行了测度。测算结果表明,就全国的社会折现率而言,主要有以下5个特点:社会边际时间偏好率虽具有波动性,但总体呈上升趋势,主要原因是经济结构中消费因素的作用在提升;资本的边际社会机会成本呈下降趋势,主要原因是投资边际收益递减规律在起作用;2011年是消费与投资利率平均水平变化的"拐点"年份;各地区加权平均社会折现率稳定在6%~8%的估计区间;无论基于哪种测算方法,地区社会折现率都呈现一定的差异性特征。得到中国消费与投资利率变动的6个基本特征,进一步提出根据区域异质性有针对性地选定社会折现率、制定消费与投资的引导政策,实现创新驱动以解决投资冗余问题,挖掘消费在经济结构中的作用,培养新兴产业以提高投资收益率,实现区域间消费与投资的优势互补等政策建议。

Based on combing the social discount rate relevant methods,in the whole country and various regions of the social discount rate were measured,the result indicates that,as the social discount rate,has the following characteristics：one is the SRTP although has fluctuations, but the overall upward trend, the main reason is the factor of consumption economy in the structure of the role in raising;two,SOC decreased,the main reason is that the law of diminishing marginal returns of investment play a role;three is the stable value in the interval estimation of 8%-6%WAA regions;the four is based on what kind of method,the district social discount rate all showed the characteristics of？certain differences.Further put forward the policy recommendations such as：according the regional heterogeneity to selected social discount rate,consumption and investment policies;realizeinnovation-drive to solve the problem of the redundant investment; mining the role of consumption in the economic structure; cultivate new industries to improve the rate of return on investment, achieve inter regional complementary advantages of consumption and investment, etc.