基于模糊综合评价模型的水利工程移民风险研究

Research on Hydraulic Engineering Migration Risks Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

水利工程移民是水利工程建设的重要组成部分,若不能妥善地安置移民,将会影响到社会的稳定和经济及环境的协调发展。本文以大棚沟水库防洪工程为例,通过研究水利工程移民风险,建立风险因素集和水利工程移民风险评价指标体系。采用模糊熵权法确定水利工程移民风险评价模型中各指标的权重,并对水利工程移民风险进行综合分析评价,得出该工程所处的风险等级及关键的风险因素,为建设单位制定风险防范措施提供了可靠依据。

Hydraulic engineering migration is an important part of water conservancy project construction. If migrants cannot be settled properly,social stability and coordinated development of economy and environment will be affected. In the paper,Dapenggou Reservoir flood control project is adopted as an example. A risk factor set and water conservancy project migration risk evaluation indicator system are established through studying hydraulic engineering migration risks. The fuzzy entropy weight method is adopted to determine the weight of different indicators in water conservancy project migration risk evaluation model. Hydraulic engineering migration risks are comprehensively analyzed and evaluated for concluding the project risk grade and key risk factors,thereby providing reliable basis for construction unit to establish risk prevention measures.