基于物质流核算的我国直接物质投入与影响因素分析

Study on China's direct material input and its influence factors through material flow analysis

采用经济系统物质流分析方法(EW-MFA)分析了我国1992—2014年的直接物质投入量,并建立LMDI模型分析其影响因素。结果显示,我国已成为物质投入量最大的国家;2011年后,随着经济发展放缓,DMI的增长速度同步下降;资源进口占比持续提高,对缓解国内资源压力较为有利;使用的资源中,能源矿产占到80%以上,故发展循环经济和低碳经济尤为重要;资源产出率仍处于较低水平,限制了我国的可持续发展潜力,可通过技术进步和发展再生资源产业加以改善;国家应加大力量发展循环经济和低碳经济,鼓励资源类产品进口,淘汰落后产能,调整产业结构。

Direct material input in China from 1992 to 2014 is calculated by economy-wide material flow analysis（ EW-MFA）,and its influence factors are analyzed through building LMDI model. The results show that China has become the country with the largest material input in the world. Since 2011,the growth rate of DMI has decreased in tandem with slowdown of economic development. The proportion of resource imports has kept increasing in the past 23 years,which is conducive to easing China＇s resource tight stress.Energy mineral resources accounts for more than 80% in the used resources,which means it is very important to develop circular economy and low carbon economy. Resource productivity is still low,which limiting China＇s potential for sustainable development.But it can be improved by technical progress and developing renewable resources industry. It is suggested that China shall strengthen to develop circular economy and low carbon economy,encourage to import resource-oriented products,phase out backward production capacity and adjust industrial structure.