中国长期能源发展趋势研判

The perspectives on the long-term trend of China's energy development

随着中国经济进入新常态,经济增速放缓,经济结构更加优化,中国能源发展也进入新常态:能源消费重心由生产领域逐步转向生活领域,对能源的需求也由对量的追求转变为对质的要求。预测期内,中国一次能源需求增速将逐步放缓,一次能源需求将于2040年前后进入峰值平台期。中国能源系统将不断朝清洁低碳、安全高效、智能多元的方向发展。清洁能源(天然气和非化石能源)将是2030年前新增能源主体,2030年后逐步替代煤炭,2045年前后占比将超过50%。2050年,煤炭、油气和非化石能源将呈三分天下的局面。

As China＇s economy enters the new normal stage with slow economic growth and more optimized economic structure, China＇s energy development also enters the new normal stage. Energy consumption has gradually shifted from production to life field and the demand for energy also changed from the pursuit of quantity to the requirement of quality. It is predicted that China＇s primary energy demand growth will slow down gradually and enter peak plateau period around 2040. The energy system will continue to develop towards clean, low-carbon, safe, efficient, intelligent and diversified. Clean energy（natural gas and non-fossil energy） will be the main contributor to energy growth before 2030 and will gradually replace coal after 2030, accounting for over 50% of total primary energy consumption around 2045. Finally, coal, oil gas, and non-fossil energy will have equal shares in 2050.