亚太地区炼油工业与油品贸易现状及未来

The status quo and future of oil refining industry and oil products trade in Asia-Pacific region

2016年,亚太地区的炼油能力有所增长,但远低于需求的增长,提高了炼油开工率并维持了炼油业毛利。2017年及今后相当长的一段时间里,如果不出现计划外项目,亚太地区炼油能力扩张转向低速增长,能力过剩的局面逐步缓解。预计未来亚太地区炼油业二次加工能力的增长将超过蒸馏能力的增长,炼油厂的复杂程度会因此上升。交通和消费者终端用油带动亚太地区油品需求的增长。东南亚持续扮演油品净进口区的角色,南亚可能会在2030年后变成油品净进口地区。预计未来亚太地区LPG和石脑油的净进口量会持续增加,汽油净出口在一两年内可能消失,此后航煤、柴油净出口量也会缩小,燃料油供需均会出现下降。苏伊士以东地区一直是石油产品净输出地区,2018年可能会变成净进口地区,净进口规模分别在2020年和2025年进一步扩大。

Refining capacity of the Asia-Pacific region had a net addition in 2016 but was far below last year＇s incremental demand growth. As a result, the region＇s refining utilization ratio was raised and the refining margins were supported. In 2017 and a period of time in the future years, the Asia-Pacific refining capacity expansions have entered a low-growth era, and surplus capacity is expected to be eased without projects outside the plan. In the meantime, the upgrading capacity is expected to be added faster than that of crude distillation capacity, leading to increase of refining sophistications. Regarding petroleum product demand and trade, terminal use of oil products related to transportation and end consumers is driving the demand. Southeast Asia continue to be the sink for petroleum products while South Asia may become a net product importer after 2030. LPG and naphtha deficits in Asia are expected to widen, but the surplus of gasoline may disappear over the next couple of years. Meanwhile net exports of jet fuel and diesel may become smaller. As for fuel oil, it is likely that both supply and demand will be shrinking. Overall, the East of Suez has been a net product supplier but it may turn to be a net importer as in 2018, with the deficit volumes increasing further by 2020 and 2025.