新常态下小微型银行机构退出机制研究

The study of withdrawal mechanism of small financial institutions under the new normal

《存款保险条例》正式实施,为新常态下银行机构市场化退出打开了空间。本文借鉴Wilson(1997)、Boss(2003)和Virolainen(2004)研究中关于宏观经济因素和贷款违约率之非线性关系的假定,将经典的市场退出模型平移到银行机构,构建小微型银行机构市场退出模型。在模拟样本小微型银行机构盈余率分布的基础上,预测小微银行机构未来10年之内市场退出概率,并在GDP增长率、利差水平、杠杆率、流动性风险指标、业务管理费用及税金率等指标变化的情况下,动态研究小微银行机构市场退出概率的变化。研究结果表明,GDP和利差水平的快速下降、业务管理费用及税金率的变化对小微型金融机构市场退出概率有显著影响。

Forml implementation of 〈The deposit insurance Ordinance 〉opens the door for the market exit of banking institutions under the new normal. Based on the Wilson（1997）, Boss（2003） and Virolainen（2004） research on the nonlinear relation assumption of macroeconomic factors and the loan default rate, the paper applies the classical market withdrawal model to construct market withdrawal model of small banking institutions. Based on the simulation of distribution of earnings rate of sample small banking institutions, we predict the market exit probability of small banking institutions within the next 10 years. Then, we research the dynamic changes of market exit probability of small banking institutions on the condition of the growth rate of GDP, deposit and loan spread, leverage, liquidity risk indicators, business management fees and tax rate changes. The results show that the rapid decline in GDP, the rapid decline in deposit and loan spread, the changes in business management fees and tax rates have a significant impact on the market exit probability of small banking institutions.