产业网络结构与总产出波动的关系——以中国八省市投入产出数据为例

The Relationship between Industry Network Structure and Aggregate Fluctuations——Based on Eight Provinces Input-output Data of China

经济系统中可能存在大型供应枢纽部门或大型需求中心部门,导致了产业网络结构的不对称,这种不对称为部门冲击转化为总产出波动提供了路径。把产业网络模型与灰色关联分析方法相结合,提出一类研究产业网络结构与总产出波动关系的NSPG法,并以中国八省市2007年投入产出截面数据为例对两者关系进行了实例分析。计算结果表明,产业网络需求结构与总产出波动不存在关联关系;产业网络一阶直接供给结构与总产出波动存在较为密切的关联关系,说明一阶直接供给结构对总产出波动存在较为显著的影响;中国西部产业网络结构与总产出波动的关联关系比东部密切,说明产业网络结构不对称程度越大,其对总产出波动的影响也越大。

The possible presence of huge supply hub sectors and large demand centers in the economy system results in the asymmetric structure of industry network,and this asymmetry provides a way to transform the shock of sectors into aggregate fluctuations.Combining industry network with Gray Relational Analysis,this paper proposes an approach called NSPG to analyze the relationship between industry network structure and aggregate fluctuations,and conducts a case study using input-output cross-sectional data of eight provinces of China in 2007 to study the relationship between them.The results show that the first-order direct supply industry network structure has close relationship with aggregate fluctuations,indicating the first-order direct supply structure has a more significant impact on aggregate fluctuations.What＇s more,the relationship between industry network structure and aggregate fluctuations of western China is closer than that of the eastern,indicating that the greater the asymmetry of industry network structure is,the greater the impact on aggregate fluctuations is.