基于蒙特卡洛模拟和综合权重的公路排水系统模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Highway Drainage System Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation and Comprehensive Weight

为能够对既有公路的排水系统进行全面准确地评价,通过对公路排水状况影响因素的分析,建立了一套公路排水状况的评价指标体系。采用模糊综合评价法,在专家打分阶段不同于以往的具体打分而采取给出打分区间的方法,运用蒙特卡洛模拟产生符合给定区间的一组随机得分,再结合层次分析法与熵权法确定的影响道路排水系统的因子的综合权重,进行排水系统的模糊综合评价。在此基础上,迭代多次汇总各次模糊评价结果,并将评价结果与现场实测进行对比。结果说明:该评价体系具有一定的科学性,可为公路排水系统的养护工作提供一定的参考。

In order to comprehensively and accurately evaluate the existing highway drainage system, a set of evaluation indexes was established by analyzing the influence factors of the highway draining condition.Firstly, using fuzzy comprehension evaluation method, the score interval was given at the expert scoring stage, which was different from the previous specific score; secondly, Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to generate a random set of scores which was adapt with the given interval; thirdly, combining with the comprehensive weight of the influence factors of highway draining system determined by AHP and entropy weight method, the fuzzy comprehension evaluation on the drainage system was finished. On the basis of above, multiple iterations were carried out and the results of various fuzzy evaluations were summarized.Finally, the evaluation results were compared with those of the field test.It is proved that the proposed evaluation system is of some science and can provide a certain reference for the maintenance of highway drainage system.