生育率选择、不平等与中等收入陷阱

Fertility Choice,Inequality and Middle-Income Trap

本文在归纳统一增长理论的基础上,建立了一个包含家庭收入异质性的统一增长模型,分析了中等收入陷阱的产生机制。当经济不平等随着发展而扩大时,可能会进入人力资本积累和经济增长逐渐放缓的中等收入陷阱。由于社会养老对家庭养老的替代作用和公共教育对私人教育的激励作用,公共政策可以改变数量和质量的替代关系,改善不平等,推动经济持续增长,从而跨越中等收入陷阱。应用这一模型,本文讨论了我国发展不平等和经济增长问题。

In this paper we summarize the recent developments in the Unified Growth Theory, and then develop a UGT model with heterogeneous families to explain the cause of middle-income trap and study the related public policies. We find that rising inequality slows down the accumulation of human capital and may lead the economy to stagnate in middle-income trap. Since social security system and old-age support system within the family are sub- stitutes, and public education and private education are complements, adequate public policies may affect the family＇s fertility choice, decrease the degree of inequality and thus yield a sus tainable growth.