出口退税政府间分担对产品出口的影响

The Impacts of Burden-sharing of the Export VAT Rebate on Products Export

本文通过2004年我国出口退税负担机制改革的自然实验,研究了中央和地方分权制度对出口的影响。通过将不受退税政策影响的加工贸易作为对照组与一般贸易出口进行比较,本文倍差法的实证结果表明,地方政府参与退税分担使全国一般贸易出口下降约391.36亿美元,占2004年全年出口的6.6%。而且这一效应只在高退税负担的省份显著;随着地方退税负担的增加,出口额将进一步下降。机制上,出口的降低近90%来源于外资存续企业产品出口规模的萎缩。

We investigate the impacts of decentralization on exports with a natural experiment provided by the burden-sharing reform of export VAT rebate in 2004. By employing ordinary trade and processing trade as the treatment group and control group respectively, our difference-in-difference estimation corroborates that the shock reduces the export for about 39.14 billion dollars nationwide, which counts for 6.6% of the total export of 2004. The effect is only significant in high rebate-burden provinces, while export will further decrease with the increase of rebate burden of local government, and nearly 900/oo of the decrease is at- tributed to the shrinkage of foreign incumbents.