龙井市苹果梨始花期预报模型研究

Study on Forecasting Model of Flowering Period of Apple Pear in Longjing City

利用延边龙井市1996—2016年苹果梨始花日期数据,通过分析苹果梨开花期日序数与1—4月每旬平均温度、降水、日照时数、20 cm地温、40 cm地温的相关关系,找出影响苹果梨始花期早晚的主要气象因子和关键时期,最终拟合出龙井市苹果梨始花日期预报模型,对模型的预报准确性进行验证,结果表明预报准确率满足业务要求。

Using the date of the apple pear beginning flower during 1996 - 2016, the relationship between the ordinal number of apple pear flowering period and the average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, 20 cm ground temperature and 40 em ground temperature from January to April were analyzed. The main meteorological factors and critical periods affecting the early stage of apple pear were found out. Finally, the date forecasting model of apple pear in Longjing City was finally fitted, and the accuracy of the forecast was verified. The results showed that the forecast accuracy was satisfactory.