组合预测模型在税收预测中的应用研究

Application of Combination Forecasting Method in Tax Revenue Forecasting

对税收收入的精确预测,能为市场经济的宏观调控提供科学依据.在现有的单项预测模型基础上,采用方差-协方差加权方法,构建了税收收入的组合预测模型.最后对我国1978-2012年的税收收入等数据进行实例分析,实证分析结果验证了组合预测模型具有较优的预测效果.

The accurate prediction of tax revenue can provide a scientific basis for the macro-control of the market economy. This paper, on the basis of existing single prediction model, constructs a combined forecasting model of tax revenue based on the minimum sum of squared errors. Then, taking the data of tax revenue of 1978-2012 in China as an example, testifies that the combined forecasting model put forward in this paper can reduce errors and improve the prediction accuracy.