地方政府债务风险对金融系统的空间外溢效应

The Spatial Spillover Effects of Local Government Debt Risks to Financial System

地方政府债务主要来源于银行等金融机构,任其风险在金融系统中隐性蔓延和扩张,势必酿成我国系统性金融风险。本文首先构建一个地方政府债务风险向金融系统外溢的空间路径和依赖条件体系,并揭示出地方政府债务风险空间外溢的直接效应和间接效应。进一步,采用空间计量模型进行实证检验发现:我国地方政府债务风险通过金融机构的中长期贷款,对辖区内和辖区间居民企业融资产生挤出性的空间外溢效应,这种挤出效应一方面被中国高储蓄存款带来的信贷软约束空间、不良贷款率反映的信贷制度软化等加剧,另一方面针对辖区间挤出效应还受到中心金融机构资金调配约束的抑制。本文研究表明,防范和治理我国系统性金融风险,不能忽视地方政府债务风险的空间外溢效应,需要对其风险空间外溢的路径"通道"进行严格清理,重点要强化地方政府债务融资的市场化机制。

Local government debt mainly came from banks and other financial institutions and its risks to spread and expand in the financial system will inevitably lead to systemic financial risks in China. First of all, this paper constructs a system that contains spatial paths and dependent condition for the spillover of the local government debt risk into the financial system, and reveals the direct and indirect effects of the spatial spillover of the local government debt risk. Furthermore, using spatial econometric model for empirical test, we find that China＇s local government debt risk through financial institutions in the long- term loans has a spatial spillover effect of crowding-out on the financing within and between the area. On one hand, those has been exacerbated by the credit constraint space brought by China＇s high savings deposits and the softening of the credit system reflected by the non-performing loan ratio. On the other hand, the crowding-out effect on the jurisdiction is also restrained by the allocation of funds in the central financial institutions. This paper shows that to prevent and control the systemic financial risks in China, we cannot ignore the spatial spillover effect of local government debt risk, need to strictly clean up the paths channel of its risk spillover, and focus on strengthening the market mechanism of local government debt financing.