中国农村反贫困绩效的推动因素测度及分解:1978-2014

Measurement and Decomposition of the Promoting Factors on China's Rural Anti-Poverty Performance:1978-2014——Based on the Five Phases of Poverty Alleviation Effect

本文利用《中国住户调查年鉴》和中国居民收入调查数据库(CHIPS)数据分阶段对农村反贫困绩效的推动因素进行测度和分解,并进行检验。实证结果显示,1978-1985年,农村贫困率下降主要得益于土地政策的内生性改革;1986-1993年,农村贫困率仍在迅速下降,经济增长因素起了主导作用,但边际收益在下降。尽管在1994-2000年,农村地区实施了开发式扶贫与社会救助"双轮驱动"的反贫困模式,但贫困率下降幅度不大,从贡献率来看,主要是经济增长的正向效应被分配因素的不合理带来的负向效应部分抵消。2001-2014年,农村贫困率有小幅上升,这一方面是由于经济增长因素对贫困的降低程度在逐渐减弱,另一方面是由于扶贫瞄准机制所发挥的收入分配效应不高,导致经济增长和收入分配要素的复合贡献率在下降。纵观农村三十多年的反贫困战略和路径,本文发现,经济增长因素是主导,随着贫困率和贫困缺口率的反弹,收入分配和再分配因素缓解贫困的贡献率将会上升。政府应从加大农村公共产品和公共服务投入力度的尺度上来优化农村反贫困的策略和路径。

Based on the data of Chinese household survey and CHIPS, we measure, decompose, and test the promoting factor of rural anti-poverty＇s performance. We find that the rural poverty rate fell, which benefited from the reform of land policy of endogenous from 1978 to 1985, and from 1986 to 1993, China＇s rural poverty was still falling rapidly, where economic growth factor plays a leading role, but the marginal revenue was falling. Although rural areas had implemented development-oriented poverty relief and social relief during 1994 and 2000, the poverty rate decline is not large, because negative effects from redistribution offset the contribution from economic growth. China＇s rural poverty is rising slightly during 2001 and 2014, where the positive contribution from economic growth is falling. Throughout the 30 years＇strategy and path of anti-poverty, we find that economic growth has been playing the dominant role, and as the rate of poverty and poverty gap rebound, the contribution from income distribution and redistribution in alleviating poverty will rise. The government should increase investment in rural public products and public service to optimize the path and strategy of rural anti-poverty.