工业化、城镇化与经济增长:孰为因孰为果

Industrialization,Urbanization and Economic Growth:Cause and Effect

本文从理论与实证两个方面分析工业化、城镇化与经济增长的逻辑关系。首先通过理论分析指出了三者的内在区别,并基于1960年以来OECD国家以及发展中国家的数据和面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型分析了城镇化、工业化与经济增长的逻辑关系。实证研究的结论显示,三者在不同类型国家呈现出不同的特征。对于OECD国家而言,由于城镇化进入相对饱和阶段,经济增长、工业化都不对其构成显著影响;其城镇化更多显示出结构性变化特征。相比之下,工业化、城镇化和经济增长的关系在发展中国家更为紧密,三者关系呈现出工业化带动经济增长,经济增长加速城镇化的特征,且城镇化对于工业化也存在反作用。加入政府支出和国际贸易变量后,上述结论仍然成立,尤其对于发展中国家而言,工业化、城镇化与经济增长都伴随着政府支出与贸易规模的增长,这与OECD国家形成鲜明对比。

Based on the data of OECD and developing countries, this paper uses both theoretical and empirical models to analyze the relationship among urbanization, industrialization and economic growth. The results reveal that urbanization, industrialization and economic growth exhibit different pattern according to different countries. For OECD countries, their economic growth and industrialization has no effect on urbanization rate. For developing countries, the three relationships are relatively close, the industrialization stimulates economic growth, which in turn accelerates urbanization, besides, urbanization promotes the industrialization process. Extending the empirical studies to include the government spending and international trade variables, the results show that both the government spending and international trade volume are increasing for the developing countries＇ industrialization and urbanization.