“菲利普斯曲线”存疑:对通胀与失业关系的再讨论

Further Discussion of Inflation and Unemployment:A Doubt on Philips Curve

面对经济下行压力,中国政府提出既要守住稳增长与保就业的"下限",同时又要把握防控通胀的"上限"。怎样处理好保就业与控通胀的关系,有学者根据"菲利普斯曲线"主张为了保就业应推高通胀。本文认为,萨缪尔森与索洛提出的菲利普斯曲线理论上并不成立。本文在梳理"菲利普斯曲线"缘起和流变的基础上,运用马克思政治经济学原理重点分析了工资与成本、成本与价格、价格与通胀的传导机理,从三个层面指出了"菲利普斯曲线"的理论失误,并用中美两国的相关数据作了实证。本文指出,中国要达到扩大就业与防范通胀的双重目标,应在继续实施稳健货币政策的同时,重点推动供给侧结构性改革。

Facing downward pressure on economics, Chinese government puts forward that not only steady growth and employment promotion as a floor level must be held, but also prevention and control of inflation as a superior limit should be grasped. How to deal with the relationship between employment and inflation control？ Some scholarsadvocatethat we should push up inflation for employment according to Phillips curve. This article considers that the Phillips curve proposed by Samuelson and Solow is invalid in theory, On the hasis of the origin and evolution of ＂Phillips curve＂, this article analyzes the transmission mechanism of wage and cost, cost and price, price and inflation, and points out the theoretical errors of ＂Phillips curve＂ from three aspects and demonstrating using the data of China and the United States. This article states that China should focus on promoting structural reform of the supply side and continue to implement prudent monetary policy at the same time to achieve the goal o{ expanding employment and guarding against inflation.