基于系统动力学的成品油应急调运策略研究

System-dynamics-based emergency transportation strategy analysis for oil products

成品油应急调运是应对各类灾害应急物资保障的重要内容.本文运用系统动力学理论,研究影响成品油应急调运效率的主要因素。按照运输方式将成品油应急调运划分为管道运输、铁路运输、公路运输和水路运输四种,在此基础上构建了成品油应急调运的系统动力学模型,并以2008年汶川特大地震发生后中国石油集团成品油应急调运活动为例,进行仿真验证。研究发现:在成品油应急调运过程中,石油企业提升保障输油管道安全的能力,可以有效增加管道运输速率;石油企业在政府的统筹协调下,加强与铁路部门、水路部门的沟通协调,可以有效提升铁路运输和水路运输效率;采用以上三个应急调运策略,可以大幅度提升成品油应急调运能力.此外,通过提升公路运输速率,无法显著增强成品油应急调运能力,但是可以作为一个可供选择的策略.

Emergency transportation for oil products （ETOP） is the important content for guaranteeing emergency materials in emergency response phase. The paper researched main factors influencing efficiency of ETOP based on system dynamics. ETOP was divided into four cases, including pipeline transportation, railway transportation, road transportation and waterway transportation in terms of mode of transporta- tion, and the system dynamics model of ETOP was built. Simulation verification was applied using China National Petroleum Corporation＇s ETOP during the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008. The research illus- trates： in the process of ETOP, oil companies could augment pipeline transportation rate effectively by promoting oil pipeline security capacity; oil companies could enhance railway and waterway transportation rates effectively through the government＇s planning and coordination, strengthening communication and coordination with railroad and waterway apartment; applying the three emergency transportation strate- gies above could greatly improve ETOP capacity. Furthermore, increasing road transportation rate, could be an alternative strategy, although it could not significantly enhance ETOP capacity.