研发项目中重叠活动间沟通对返工风险的影响分析与优化

The impact analysis and optimization of communication on rework risk between overlapped activities in R&D projects

设计活动间的重叠是并行研发项目的基本特征,重叠可以缩短工期,但也会带来返工风险,并增加与重叠并行性相关的成本.为探索重叠活动间的多次沟通对返工风险的影响,本文构建了基于多次沟通-风险的重叠模型,建立了上游活动信息变更率和下游活动返工影响敏感度计算模型,在此基础上构建了活动返工风险和返工量计算模型及与重叠并行性相关的成本模型,进一步,以成本节约值最大化为目标函数,采用Fmincon算法优化得到了多次沟通时最佳的沟通次数和沟通间隔.最后,结合典型案例,在对重叠活动间沟通变量优化的基础上,对设计结构矩阵(DSM)进行排序优化并将优化结果进行仿真,结果表明本文提出的方法可降低项目时间和成本.

Overlapping between activities is a fundamental feature in concurrent R＆D project. Even though overlapping can reduce product duration, it also leads to rework risk and increase cost related with overlapping. In order to explore the impact of multicommunication between overlapped activities on rework risk, this paper builds the multicommunieation-risk overlapping model and the calculation models of upstream activity＇s information modification rate and downstream activity＇s rework sensitivity. Then, the models of downstream activ[ty＇s rework risk and rework workload are built. Ptlrthermore, maximizing the objective function of saved project cost, the optimization results obtain the best communication frequency and communication interval. Finally, an industrial example is provided to illustrate the proposed models, the optimal results are conducted sensitivity analysis and simulation analysis which yield several managerial insights.