金融开放与宏观经济波动——基于修正的“三元悖论”框架的分析

Financial Openness and Macroeconomic Fluctuation:The Analysis Based on the Corrected Impossible Trinity

论文基于三元政策目标的演变轨迹,修正了"三元悖论",在修正的"三元悖论"框架下,构建了金融开放对宏观经济波动影响的效应分解模型,并选取我国1998Q1-2016Q4的有关数据进行实证,结果显示修正的"三元悖论"在我国具有可行性,我国金融开放与汇率制度安排的不协调,引致了所积累的巨额外汇储备与追求汇率高度稳定政策交互影响的恶性循环,进而强化了金融开放所产生的的宏观经济波动效应。

The paper modifies the Impossible Trinity based on the trace of the development of the Impossible Trinity policy objectives,and constructs the model to decompose the effect caused by financial openness,then takes advantage of the sample data from 1998Q1-2016Q4 to make a empirical analysis. The analysis results shows that the Corrected Impossible Trinity has feasibility,meanwhile the financial openness contribute to the growth,but the Policy arrangement of financial openness and Exchange-rate regime was out of tune,and caused the vicious spiral of the interaction affect between the a large sum of foreign exchange reserve and Exchange rate highly stable policy,which intensify the macroeconomic fluctuation brought by the financial openness.