淮河流域经济增长、FDI与工业污染排放的时空研究

A Spatio-temporal Study on the Economic Growth,FDI and the Industrial Pollution Emission in Huaihe River Basin

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线相关理论,以淮河流域38个地级市为研究对象,考察其2004-2015年间人均真实GDP、FDI以及第二产业变动对工业污染排放的影响:利用主成分分析法,测度各地市工业污染程度并分析其变化趋势;利用全域Moran’s I指数考察何种变量具有空间相关性,适合做空间计量分析;利用空间面板模型,对各因素的影响效果做出分析,证明地区工业污染与人均真实GDP、FDI和第二产业产值等因素皆有关。应继续提高淮河流域的对外开放程度,加快经济发展方式的转变,不断优化产业结构,并从整体视角出发,统筹推进,不断完善淮河流域的工业污染防治工作。

Based on the theory of environmental Kuznets curve,this paper takes 38prefecture-level cities in Huaihe River Basin as research objects and examines the impact of real GDP per capita,FDI and secondary industry changes on industrial pollution emission from 2004 to 2015.Firstly,the principal component analysis method is applied to measure the degrees of industrial pollution in different cities and the changing trends are analyzed.Secondly,the global Moran＇s I index is used to examine which variables have spatial correlation and are suitable for spatial econometric analysis.Thirdly,by using the spatial panel model to analyze the effect of each factor,it is proved that the regional industrial pollution is related to real GDP per capita,FDI and the output value of the secondary industry.Finally,according to the above empirical results,several corresponding policies are recommended.First,the degree of opening up in Huaihe River Basin should be consistently improved.Second,the transformation of economic development model should be promoted so as to optimize the industrial structure.Third,the prevention and control should be carried out based on an integrated principle.