中国膳食水足迹区域差异及驱动因素分析

Impacts of Driving Factors and the Regional Difference of Dietary Water Footprint in China

为了量化人口、富裕度和技术等因素对膳食水足迹的影响,以全国城乡居民2000—2015年的膳食水足迹为基础数据,采用偏最小二乘回归方法(PLS)对STIRPAT模型进行修正,分析八大区域膳食水足迹的驱动因素,并引入脱钩理论分析了经济发展与膳食水足迹之间的关系。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年期间,全国膳食水足迹呈现平稳增加趋势,华北地区膳食水足迹增加趋势最显著,黄淮海地区膳食水足迹绝对量最大;(2)人口总数对八大区域膳食水足迹有促进作用,城市化率、GDP、膳食水足迹强度、人均粮食产量、耕地灌溉面积对八大区域膳食水足迹影响的促进与抑制作用并存;(3)研究期内,经济增长与膳食水足迹之间的关系大多处于弱脱钩状态,说明膳食水足迹有待降低,尚未达到与经济协调发展的最佳状态。

In order to explore the effects of population, urbanization, and technology on dietary water footprints, based on dietary water foot- prints of urban and rural residents in China from 2000 to 2015, this paper adopted the method of PLS to rectify the STIRPAT model and analyze the driving factors of eight regional dietary water footprints. It introduced the decoupling theory to analyze the relationship between the e- conomic development and dietary water footprint. During 2000-2015, dietary water footprint nationwide showed a steady trend increase, and the trend of dietary water footprint was the most significant in North China, while the absolute maximum of dietary water footprint was the highest in Huang-Huai-Hai area; the total population was the positively driving factors of the eight areas dietary water footprint, while urbani- zation, GDP, dietary water footprint intensity, per capita grain yield and irrigated area of cultivated land were both the driving and inhibiting effects of coexistence ; during the study period, the relationship between economic growth and dietary water footprint was in a weak decoupling state; the dietary water footprint should be reduced, and the optima/state with economic coordinated development has not yet reached.