印度洋相遇——印度应对中国进入印度洋的行为逻辑

Encountering in the Indian Ocean:India's Reaction Logic on China's Entry into the Indian Ocean

印度洋在21世纪对于中印两国都具有重要的战略意义,印度经略印度洋和中国进入印度洋所导致的紧张情势似乎不可避免。总体看来,印度对中国进入印度洋一向保持警惕心态,不过依据议题敏感性的高低,印度的反应也有所不同。对于高敏感性议题,印度往往采取反制的行为倾向;对于低敏感性议题,印度往往采取警惕的行为倾向,且其国内主流认知对该类议题的再塑造将会对印度最终会采取何种反应起到关键作用。中国进入印度洋的多边或双边方式对印度会采取何种反应的强烈程度影响不大。中国应虑及印度在印度洋地区的战略特性,加强与印度在印度洋地区的合作;同时加强与印度洋周边中等国家和小国的合作,巩固中国进入印度洋的战略基础。此外,要特别注意印度对于中国进入印度洋的过度解读。

In the 21st century,the Indian Ocean is a strategically significant region for both India and China.As India wants to occupy and manage the Indian Ocean,it seems that there will be an inevitable tension between India and China in this region.In general,India is vigilantly against China's progress in this area,but the severity of the specific reaction varies from high to low based on the sensitivity of the issue.India prefers countering and containing on highly sensible issues to low sensible issues.Moreover,the mainstream domestic cognition and understanding in India may reshape the low sensible issues so as to impact or alter India's reactions.However,it does not much matter to Indian reactions whether China adopted multilateral or bilateral entrance into the ocean.China should consider India's special demands for the Indian Ocean so that it can strengthen its cooperation with India in this region.Simultaneously,in order to reinforce the strategic bases and enlarge the friendship,China should enhance the cooperation with those middle powers and small countries in the Indian Ocean.Last but not least,China should also pay a special attention to the India's over-interpretation about China's entry.