烟台西港区随机概率统计法船舶溢油污染概率研究

A study on Probability of Ship Oil Spill Pollution with Random Probability Statistic Method in Western Yantai Port

船舶事故溢油发生的时间、地点具有不确定性,同时由于复杂的海洋动力条件,对周围环境的污染也是不确定的。本文以烟台港西港区为例,基于"油粒子"追踪法的海洋溢油数值模型,考虑随机风场和流场的组合动力条件,采用随机概率统计法,研究了烟台西港区周围的溢油污染概率。结果表明,烟台西港区附近海域在溢油点的东北-西南方向及东南-西北方向污染概率较大,对港区附近的码头,港区西部的农渔业区污染概率大于10%,由于地形的影响,对套子湾内的旅游休闲娱乐区、农渔业区、芝罘岛海洋保护区的污染概率小于5%。

Because of the randomness of dynamic, the pollution opportunity of ship oil spill is occasional at a certain place. In the case study of western Yantai port, the random probability statistical method was used to calculating the oil spill probability around the port. Based on the dynamic model forced by the random tide and wind, the oil movement was simulated with oil particle method. From the statistics of all simulating results, we got the oil pollution probability. The results indicated that around western Yantai port, the oil spill pollution probability was greater in the directions of NE-SW and SE-NW. For the wharf of western Yantai port and the agricultural and fishery areas to its west, the pollution proba- bility was greater than 10%. Due to the special topography, the pollution probability was smaller than 5% for the tourism and entertainment areas, agricultural and fishery regions, and Zhifu Island marine conservation area in Taozi Bay.