西藏飞蝗潜在分布对气候变化响应研究

Effect of potential distribution of Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen on climate changes

运用生态位模型软件Max Ent,模拟和预测气候变化背景下大尺度范围西藏飞蝗适生区分布及其变化可能性。基于当前数据和IPCC AR5提出的三种气候情景以及西藏飞蝗分布信息,采用Max Ent生态位模型和Arc GIS预测西藏飞蝗适生区及未来变化趋势,用ROC曲线检测模型精度、刀切法(Jackknife test)筛选主导环境变量。当前气候条件下,西藏飞蝗高适生区主要位于四川省和西藏自治区,中风险区则主要集中在青藏高原东部地区,包括四川西部、西藏东部、云南北部等。西藏飞蝗适生区分布、面积及中心点位置不同。Max Ent模型对未来气候变化条件下西藏飞蝗适生区准确模拟与预测具有潜在应用价值,对虫害综合治理具有重要指导意义。

The main objective of the current study was to simulate and predict the future largescale distribution and change possibility of L. migratoria tibetensis by using Max Ent（the maximum entropy model）. Based on current environmental factors, three climate scenarios in the future suggested by IPCC fifth report and current distribution sites of L. migratoria tibetensis, using Max Ent and Arc GIS to predict the potential geographic distribution area and the change trend of L. migratoria tibetensis.Bioclimatic dominant factors were chosen by Jackknife test, while ROC was used to evaluate the simulation. Results showed that, under the present climatic conditions, the highly suitable distribution areas for L. migratoria tibetensis were in Sichuan Province and Xizang autonomous region, while the moderately suitable distribution areas were in west of Sichuan Province, east of Xizang autonomous region, and north of Yunnan Province. Under different emission scenarios in the future, the area, the center and the suitable distribution areas were all the different compared with the current situation.Max Ent model is potentially useful for forecasting adaptive distribution areas of L. migratoria tibetensis under future climate changes, and it will provide an important guidance for the pest integrated management.