一起羊布鲁菌病的定性风险分析

The qualitative risk analysis of a case of goat brucellosis

2015年10月,某羊场被确认存有羊布鲁菌病阳性病例,该场自2015年8月初出现首个流产病例后,连续发病,至2016年4月底停止。对1月龄以上的778只羊采血送检104份血清,88份为阳性,可疑9份,阳性率达84.6%。通过调查定性风险分析表明,非法引进患病母羊未隔离观察,直接混群饲养导致疫病在场内迅速扩散,是此次疫情发生的主要原因,但通过该场向外扩散的风险较小。

In October 2015,positive cases of brucellosis were diagnosed in a sheep farm in Jiangsu Province. After the first abortion case in early August 2015,many sheep got brucellosis until the end of April 2016. A total of 104 sera were collected from 778 sheep of one month old,among which 88 were positive,9 were suspicious,and the positive rate was 84. 6%. The investigation of qualitative risk analysis showed that the main reason of the outbreak is the illegal introduction of infected ewes without being separated from each other before blending. However,the risk of brucellosis spread was very low.