台湾地区与韩国在中国大陆市场的竞争态势研究

A Research on the Competition for Mainland Market between Taiwan and South Korea

论文首先利用出口产品结构对中国台湾地区与韩国在中国大陆市场上的货物贸易关系进行了分析,然后基于VECM框架研究韩国向中国大陆出口和台湾向中国大陆出口之间的动态关系。论文认为在中国大陆市场上,台湾地区和韩国之间的产品重叠度较高,存在明显的竞争关系;从短期来看,韩国向中国大陆出口不利于台湾地区向中国大陆出口,而台湾地区向中国大陆出口有利于韩国向中国大陆出口;长期来看,中韩FTA的实施对台湾地区的贸易转移效应的不利态势会逐渐凸显。

This paper makes a detailed analysis of the goods trade relations in the mainland market between Taiwan and South Korea by using export product structure,and then based on the VECM framework,studies the dynamic relationship between them in exporting to the mainland. The findings show that there has a high degree of overlapping in products exported to the mainland between Taiwan and South Korea,and at the same time,there is also a significant competitive relationship between them. In the short term,South Korea＇s export to China's Mainland is not conducive to Taiwan＇s export to the mainland while,in contrast,the latter＇s export to the mainland proves to be beneficial to the former＇s. In the long term,the unfavorable situation of the Taiwan trade diversion effect caused by the implementation of China-South Korea FTA will gradually become prominent.