“一带一路”倡议下中国对外投资的产业选择

根据技术等级将出口商品进行分类,选取"一带一路"沿线38个国家(地区)为样本,采用显示性比较优势指数和贸易特化指数对中国35类工业制成品相对沿线国家(地区)的竞争力现状、变化和互补性进行研究。并在此基础上,针对中国对沿线国家(地区)投资的产业进行了选择。研究发现,我国工业制成品竞争力呈W型分布,低技术制成品竞争力较强,资源型、中技术制成品缺乏优势,高技术制成品优势下降;中国与沿线国家(地区)以产业间互补为主,高技术制成品中没有出现竞争力较强的互补产品。在投资策略上,应提高与东道国的产业关联程度,加快国内优势产业的国际产业链布局,加快国内过剩产能转移,推动国内低端制造业升级,加大技术学习类投资,增加国内高技术产业出口竞争优势。

With the trade data based on classification under the technical content of export commodities, this paper studies the current situation, the trend of the competitiveness and the complementarity of industries between China and other 38 countries along the ＂One Belt and One Road＂, and gives suggestions to the industry selection of China＇s outward investment. The results show that： the competitiveness of China＇s industry shows a W-distribution. The low-tech products are more competitive, and the resource products and medium-tech products are less competitive, while the competitiveness of high-tech products is declining. The industrial complementarity forms between China and other ＂One Belt and One Road＂ countries are in majority of inter industrial complementarity, and there are no competitive complementary products in high-tech products. From investment strategy, China should raise the degree of improving the industry relevance with the host country, speed up the international industrial chain layout of domestic industries, accelerate the transfer of excess capacity, boost manufacturing upgrade, and increase the technological learning investment and the export competitiveness of domestic high-tech products.