全球货币政策正常化过程中我国债市的危与机

Risks and opportunities for China＇s bond market in context of global monetary policy normalization

今年以来，主要发达经济体央行跟随美联储展现出货币政策正常化意图，导致美元指数承压下行和全球债券市场大跌。中国央行则综合考虑稳增长、去杠杆、稳定物价的需要，维持稳健中性的货币政策立场。文章分析指出，在国际与国内形势的共同影响下，下半年债券市场趋势性机会并不大，建议在策略上需要更偏向于防守，在大仓位上布局套息交易（carry trade），小仓位上捕捉结构性机交易机会。

This year, following the Fed＇s move, the central banks of major developed economies showed intentions to normalize their monetary policies, resulting in the falling of US dollar index and the plummeting of global bond markets. The central bank of China, however, maintains a robust and neutral monetary policy as considering the requirements for a steady growth of economy, the deleveraging and the stabilizing of CPI. This paper points out that, under the combined influences of international and domestic environments, the bond market in China may offer little trading opportunities in the second half of the year. Thus, it suggests to adopt defensive-oriented strategies, allocating more positions on carry trade while keeping an eye on structured trading opportunities.