汇率市场化与资本账户开放协调推进的宏观经济效应

The Macroeconomic Effects Promoted Concertedly by Exchange Rate and Capital Account Liberalization

利用VAR方法得到国内外利率冲击的经验特征:国内利率调控具有逆周期性,国外利率上升引起国内产出和通胀上升。在此基础上构建符合经验特征的、包含资本项目和汇率管制的小型开放动态随机一般均衡理论框架,模拟汇率和资本账户改革协同推进的宏观经济效应。研究发现:随着两者的协调推进,国内外技术冲击对国内产出和通胀的影响将减弱;国内外利率冲击对国内产出和通胀的影响将增强,改革使国内货币政策调控能力增强但国外货币政策对国内经济的冲击影响增大;国外冲击引起的汇率波动增大,导致汇率完全浮动、资本账户完全开放下社会福利损失降低。结论表明,为保证宏观经济的平稳运行,央行应当在国外利率冲击较小时逐步推进汇率市场化和资本账户改革。

This paper used VAR method to Obtain the domestic and international interest rate control experience characteristics： the domestic interest rate adjustment has a counter- cyclical, foreign interest rates caused by the devaluation of the RMB, domestic output and rising inflation. We built a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which included capital account and exchange rate regulated. We simulate the empirical the macro economic effect of reform. The results indi impact effect will be weakened which shows that the ability to cated that： with the deepening of reforms, the actual economic while the nominal economic impact effect will be enhanced, regulate and control of domestic interest rates ability will be improved. Variance decomposition shows that with the coordination of the reform of propulsion, domestic interest rates significantly enhance its capability of regulation of output fluctuation, and of inflation control ability has not improved significantly. Welfare analysis, promoting the liberalization helps to reduce the welfare loss. Therefore, monetary authorities should pay attention to the main shocks faced in real time and put forward account reform according to the specific economic situations.