工业用地供给与工业转型的互动关系研究--以北京市为例

The interaction between industrial land supply and industrial transformation in Beijing

本研究旨在刻画北京市工业用地供给及工业转型特征,探讨土地供给与工业转型的相互影响。研究结果表明,1997-2011年北京市工业转型呈"快-慢-快"发展趋势,经历了1998年和2011年两个快速转型期,工业高级化程度快速提升,工业行业由资源密集型的传统产业向技术密集型的现代制造业转变。同时,北京市工业用地供给数量和价格均显著提升,但以2007年中国工业用地供给市场化为转折点,2007年后面积增速明显放缓,而价格增速显著上升。VAR模型结果显示,工业用地供给变化对工业转型的影响程度相对较小,且具有滞后和波动性;但工业转型对工业用地供给具有显著的负向作用。因此,未来需推进工业用地供给侧结构性改革并进一步落实土地节约集约利用政策,保障新产业、新业态用地,促进土地的合理配置以及工业经济的持续健康发展。

Industrial transformation has had a major impact on global economic and social development. In China,all urban land is owned by the state;this system of government leading urban land supply promotes regional industrial transformation but also results in inefficient use of industrial land and repeated construction. How to promote structural reform of land supply to promote regional industrial transformation and change the mode of economic growth is an urgent for China. Here we describe the characteristics of industrial land supply and industrial transformation in Beijing and explore the influence of land supply and industrial transformation.We found that the industrial transformation speed in Beijing city was fast-slow-fast from 1997 to 2011,with two rapid transition periods in 1998 and 2011. The level of advanced industry was rapidly upgraded,and the industry generally transformed from resource-intensive traditional industries to technology-intensive modern manufacturing. The area and price of industrial land in Beijing increased significantly from 1997 to 2011,but the marketization of Chinese industrial land supply in 2007 represented a turning point：the area of industrial land increased significantly before 2007,and the growth rate slowed down sharply after 2007,while the price of industrial land increased significantly after 2007. VAR model results show that the influence of the change in industrial land supply on industrial transformation was relatively small,with a lag effect and high volatility;however,industrial transformation had a significant negative effect on industrial land supply. Innovating supply-side reform of industrial land and developing policy for land intensive are needed to ensure the land supply of new industrial formats,the rational allocation of land and healthy development of the economy.