农业经济发展与农业碳排放的实证关系研究——以上海郊区农业为例

Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Emissions: A Case Study of Shanghai Suburb Agriculture

通过实证研究判断上海农业发展是否以环境质量下降为代价。首先,参照IPCC及上海农业碳排放前期研究,核算上海9个郊县的农业碳汇和碳排放量,分析农业碳排放的发展趋势、农业碳排放强度和农业碳排放结构,农业能耗在农业碳排放总量中所占比例从2002年的50%增加到2012年的80%。然后,利用STATA13.0软件对上海9个郊区在1993—2013年农业生产活动的面板数据进行分析,检验上海郊区农业发展与农业碳排放者之间是否存在类似环境库茨涅兹曲线关系,回归结果显示,平均每1亿元农业产值将带来0.825 0万吨CO_2排放当量,95%置信区间为(0.743 0,0.907 0)。最后,基于农业碳排放估算和实证分析结果,提出上海进一步减少农业碳排放的方向和具体措施。

An empirical analysis is used to determine whether the Shanghai agricultural growth is at the cost of environmental damage. First, following the IPCC guide and previous studies on agricultural emission （hereafter referred to agro-emission） coefficients in Shanghai, total agro-emissions and absorption are computed. The time trend, intensity and source of agro- emission are demonstrated. The ratio of energy consumption accounted for total agro-emissions is increased from 50% in 2002 to 80% in 2012. Next, a panel data of agricultural activities for 1993-2013 was used in STATA13.0 to examine the existence of EKC relationship between agricultural economic growth and agro-emission in Shanghai. It suggests that on average, every 100 million of agriculture GDP leads to 8 250 tons of carbon dioxide （CO2） equivalent. The 95% of confidence interval of that estimation is between 7 430 and 9 070 tons. Finally, the paper provides the possible ways for further agro-emission abatement based on estimations and empirical evidences.