基于季节指数的蔬菜价格变动趋势分析及预测

Analysis and Forecast of Vegetable Price Trend Based on Seasonal Index

基于季节指数分析蔬菜价格和上市量的波动趋势,并进一步构建了蔬菜价格预测计量模型。结果表明:蔬菜整体的价格和上市量总体呈现出波动上升趋势,且具有显著的季节性;果菜、叶菜和根茎菜年均价格呈现出波动上升趋势,而上市量走势总体均保持平稳上升趋势,且具有明显的季节性变化;在未来2年蔬菜价格均继续呈现出季节性变动的缓慢上升趋势,且价格变动并不是由季节这单一因素主导,还受到其它随机因素影响,尤其是叶菜表现最为明显。

Based on the seasonal index,vegetable prices and the trend of fluctuations in the market price were analyzed,and the model of vegetable price forecasting was built.The results showed that the price and amount overall of vegetables were a rising trend,and had significant seasonal characteristics.Average prices of fruits vegetables,leafy vegetables and root vegetables showed rising trend,and the amount listed on the overall trend remained stable upward trend with obvious seasonal change.The price of vegetables would continue to grow slowly with seasonal changes in the coming one to two years,and the price change was not dominated by the single season factors,but also by other factors and random factors,especially the leafy vegetables.