市场主体有限理性预期对人民币汇率波动影响研究——基于美联储加息视角

Study on the Influence of Investors with Limited Rational Expectation on RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation——Based on the Perspective of Federal Reserve Interest Raising

近年来,随着人民币汇率市场化进程加快,个人预期对人民币汇率实际升贬值发挥了越来越重要的作用。本文在美联储重启加息周期这一背景下,首次创新性的尝试构建有限理性人民币汇率预期指标,并从微观交易主体层面分析影响当前人民币汇率波动的各种非理性因素,探究美联储加息及人民币贬值背景下我国人民币汇率市场化改革措施,并提出相关政策建议。

In recent years, with the acceleration of the process of RMB exchange rate marketization, the individual expectation plays more and more important role when RMB exchange rate rises or depreciates. With the background of FED restarting rate hike cycle, the authors innovatively tried to build RMB exchange rate expectation bounded rationality norm and analyzed the irrational factors that affected the fluctuations of current RMB exchange rate from the aspect of individual investors. The authors also explored reform measures of RMB exchange rate marketization with the background of FED raising interest rate and RMB depreciation and made some relevant policy recommendations.