中等收入阶段我国城乡收入差距演变趋势及其影响因素研究——对于“库兹涅茨倒U型假说”的再检验

Research on the Changing Trend of Income Gap between Urban and Rural Areas in China and Its Influencing Factors in the Middle Income Stage——Retest of the “Kuznets' Inverted U-shaped Hypothesis”

运用1980~2015年总量数据和2000~2015年省级面板数据,测度中国城乡收入差距演变趋势及各地区变化趋势差异,并进一步分析其背后的影响因素,得到以下结论:改革开放以来中国城乡收入差距有所增加,在分析期间呈现出波动式变化趋势;分地区来看,各地区城乡收入差距变化趋势有所差异,但在中等收入阶段均呈现出明显的倒U型特征;在各影响因素中,市场化进程对城乡收入差距的影响并不显著,城乡居民人均收入比值、对外开放扩大了中国城乡之间的收入差距,城镇化进程缩小了中国城乡间收入差距;人均GDP与泰尔指数二次项回归系数显著为负,说明中等收入阶段中国经济发展水平与城乡收入差距确实存在倒U型的关系。

This paper uses the total data from 1980 to 2015 and the provincial data from 2000 to 2015 to measure the evolution trend of urban - rural income gap and the differences of changing trends in different regions. The influencing factors behind the changing trends are further analyzed. The following conclusions are drawn： （1） Since the reform and opening -up, the income gap between urban and rural areas has been increased and there has been a fluctuating trend. （2） The trend of urban - rural income gap varies from region to region, but it shows a clear in- verted U - shaped feature in the middle income stage ; （3） Among the influencing factors, the im- pact of the marketization process on the urban - rural income gap is not significant. The per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents, and the reform and opening to the outside world have expanded the urban -rural income gap, while the urbanization progress narrowed the income gap. （4） Per capita GDP and the quadratic regression tive, which indicates that there is an inverted U - coefficient of Theil index are significantly negashaped relationship between the level of economic development and the urban -rural income gap in the middle income stage.