摘要
通过已有软岩边坡锚索监测资料,结合锚索预应力损失影响因素以及损失机理,构建边坡锚索预应力损失事故树。引入了模糊集理论,采用3σ法则和改进模糊语言将基本事件的不确定概率转化为梯形模糊数,应用模糊算子计算出事故树中顶事件发生的模糊概率,进行了模糊重要度分析,明确了系统的薄弱环节,并提出了降低该边坡锚索预应力损失的合理措施。分析结果表明,模糊事故树法能将主观判断做出客观描述,并科学有效的评价边坡锚索锚固可靠性问题,为边坡锚固工程失效事故的安全预警提供了新思路。
Through the cable monitoring data of weathered soft rock,combined the influencing factors and the damage mechanism of cable prestress loss,the slope anchor cable prestress loss fault tree was built. Fuzzy set theory was introduced. Then using 3σ law and improved fuzzy language turned the uncertain probability of basic events into trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy operators were applied to calculate the fuzzy probability of top event,then the fuzzy importance analysis was carried to clear the weak link of the system. Finally,reasonable measures to reduce slope anchor cable prestress loss were put forward. The analysis shows that the fuzzy fault tree method could make objective description to subjective judgment,and solve the slope anchor cable anchorage reliability problems effectively and accurately,providing a new way to the safety warning of slope anchor cable anchorage failure accidents.
作者
陈沅江
洪涛
CHEN Yuanjiang HONG Tao(School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083,China)
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2017年第3期87-93,共7页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
基金
国家自然科学基金(51274251)
交通部西部交通科技中心项目(20083187581)
关键词
模糊事故树
锚索预应力损失
梯形模糊数
可靠性分析
预应力锚固失效
fuzzy fault tree
cable prestress loss
trapezoidal fuzzy numbers
reliability analysis
prestress anchorage invalidation
