本土市场规模扩张如何引领价值链攀升

How Does the Expansion of Local Market Induce GVC Upgrading?

与以往文献所揭示的"本土市场效应"不同,本文基于全球价值链分工条件下生产地和消费市场分离会产生特定额外成本的特征事实出发,从全球价值链区位配置的独特视角,提出了发展中国家本土市场规模扩大会诱发价值链高端生产环节的梯度转移,从而影响该国制造业全球价值链攀升的新命题。本文以理论刻画为先导,基于WIOD数据库数据,测度了1995-2011年中国13个制造业GVC指数和市场背离度指数,分别作为全球化条件下价值链分工地位和本土市场规模效应的替代变量。在充分考虑和有效控制其他影响因素条件下,采用广义可加模型的半参数核密度估计、系统广义矩估计以及差分广义矩估计等方法,对本文命题假说进行检验,证实本土市场效应新的内涵和作用机制。

In contrast to the ＂local market effect＂ disclosed in the previous literature, this paper based on the fact that the separation of production and consumer markets under the division of the global value chain will result in a specific additional cost, proposes a new proposition that the expansion of the local market in developing countries will induce the gradient transfer of the upstream part of the value chain and affect the global value chain of the manufacturing industry in the country from the unique perspective of the global value chain location configuration. Taking the theory as the forerunner, based on the WIOD data- base, this paper measures the GVC index and market divergence index of 13 manufacturing industries in China from 1995 to 2011, respectively, which are used as substitution variables of value chain division and local market scale effect under globalization. In full consideration and effective control of other influence factors, the generalized additive model （GAM） of the semi parametric kernel density estimation, System GMM Estimation （SGMM） and the difference GMM Estimation （DGMM） methods are used to analyze the proposition hypothesis by logical consistency meteorological test and robustness test, the results confirm the new connotation and mechanism of the above ＂local market effect＂.