基于群决策层次分析法的潜射反舰导弹武器系统作战效能评估

Operational Effectiveness Evaluation of Submarine-to-Ship Missile Weapon System Based on Group Analytic Hierarchy Process

文章着眼于潜射反舰导弹武器系统组成和作战过程,构建了较为全面的武器系统作战效能评估指标体系,应用群决策方法对层次分析法进行改进,采用Hadamard乘法凸组合对不同专家的判断矩阵进行集结来确定指标权重,克服了传统层次分析法易受个人偏好影响、评价结果不够客观的弊端。同时,针对效能指标的模糊、不确定性,运用灰色系统理论进行定量化处理,实现了定性与定量评估的转换,建立了集中群决策层次分析法和灰色理论两者优点的效能评估方法。实例表明,该方法切实可行,能够提高评估的准确性。

Through analyzing the composition and combat process of the submarine-to-ship missile weapon system, a comprehensive operational effectiveness evaluation index system was firstly built in this paper, and the group decision making was then applied to improve the traditional analytic hierarchy process. The new method of group analytic hierarchy process （GAHP） used Hadamard convex combination to gather different experts＇ judgment matrix in order to determine the index weight, which overcomed the disadvantage that the AHP was easily influenced by personal preference and the evaluation results were not objective. Moreover, according to the fuzzy uncertainty of effectiveness index, the grey theory was used to solve the transition problem between qualitative and quantitative. A new evaluation model which combined GAHP with grey theory for effectiveness evaluation was presented. Finally, the numerical example demonstrated that the model was efficient and could raise the accuracy of the evaluation results.