江苏省昆山市2006～2014年卵巢癌发病率趋势分析

Trend of Ovarian Cancer Incidence in Kunshan City,Jiangsu Province,2006～2014

[目的]了解江苏省昆山市卵巢癌发病率趋势,预测2015~2020年发病率。[方法]2006~2014年卵巢癌病例来源于昆山市肿瘤登记数据,用中国2000年第5次人口普查年龄结构计算年龄标化发病率(中标率)。使用年度变化百分比(annual change percentage,APC)评价发病率变化趋势;用时间趋势与自回归模型预测至2020年卵巢癌发病率。[结果]江苏省昆山市卵巢癌粗发病率从2006年的3.63/10万上升到2014年10.19/10万(APC=8.6%,95%CI:3.6%~13.6%);中标率从2006年的2.70/10万上升到2014年的7.19/10万(APC=7.1%,95%CI:1.7%~12.5%);年龄别发病率在30~60岁快速上升,60~64岁达到高峰。时间趋势与自回归模型预测结果显示2015~2020年卵巢癌预粗发病率分别为10.22/10万、10.76/10万、11.30/10万、11.84/10万、12.39/10万和12.93/10万。[结论 ]江苏省昆山市卵巢癌发病率明显上升,未来也将继续上升。

[Purpose] To investigate the trend of ovarian cancer incidence and to predict the incidence up to 2020 in Kunshan,Jiangsu province.[Methods] Ovarian cancer cases were derived from cancer registry.The Chinese population in 2000 was used for age-standardized incidence rate（ASR）,annual percentage changes（APC） and 95% confidence interval（CI） were used to examine the trend and the stepwise autoregressive method of time series model was used to predict the incidence rate up to 2020.[Results] Crude incidence rate of ovarian cancer increased from 3.63/105 to 10.19/105（APC=8.6%,95% CI：3.6%~13.6%）,the ASR（per 100 000） increased from 2.70/105 to 7.19/105（APC=7.1%,95% CI：1.7%~12.5%）.The age-specific incidence increased rapidly age 30~60 years and peaked at age 60~64 years.The stepwise autoregressive method of time series model demonstrated that the ovarian cancer showed upward trend in the year 2015 to 2020,with 10.22/105,10.76/105,11.30/105,11.84/105,12.39/105,and 12.93/105,respectively.[Conclusion] The ovarian cancer incidence is increasing by time during 2006 to 2014 in Kunshan city,and a continue increasing is predicted.A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer.