油库雷击火灾场景概率及消防用量计算方法

Calculation method of oil depot lighting fire probability and fire amount

通过事故树分析,得到雷击直接击穿或损坏、自动泡沫灭火系统失效、手动泡沫灭火系统失效、消防队不能准时到达的概率。通过事件树分析,得到密封圈火灾、局部池火和全液面池火发生概率。结果表明,雷击引发的3种火灾场景中,密封圈火灾发生的概率最高,其次是局部池火,全液面火灾发生的概率最低。在此基础上计算泡沫液量和消防用水量。

By fault tree analysis, the probability of direct breakdown or damage by lighting stroke, automatic foam extinguishing system failure, manual foam extinguishing system failure, and fire-fighter failing to arrive on time were gotten. By event tree analysis, the probability of sealing ring fire, partial pool fire and full pool fire were gotten. Results showed that, in the 3 kinds of fire scene caused by lightning stroke, the probability of sealing ring fire is the biggest, then partial pool fire, and the probability of full pool fire is the smallest. Based on the calculation, the foam amount and fire water amount were calculated.