防控中国系统性金融风险

China's Prevention of Systemic Financial Risks

近年来金融风险不停地在股票、房地产、债券、互联网金融和外汇等市场之间游走,表明中国经济已经进入金融风险高发期。而增长持续减速导致实体经济投资回报下降,催生大量的僵尸企业并推动金融风险的快速积累;同时杠杆率剧升,流动性充裕与投资机会不足同时并存;一些领域的金融创新比如互联网金融和影子银行在满足实体经济需求的同时,也制造了许多新的金融风险;而实施多年的"政府兜底"已经越来越难以为继。因此,防控系统性金融风险已经成为当前经济政策的重要目标之一。我们建议政府从三个方面入手:第一,宏观经济政策特别是货币政策应该高度关注金融风险,与宏观审慎监管政策配合,保持经济与金融的相对稳定。第二,放弃政府兜底,强化市场纪律,及时释放风险点,尽快处置僵尸企业与僵尸金融机构。第三,改革金融监管框架,改善政策协调,加强监管机构的独立性、专业性和权威性,一旦条件成熟走向混业监管,建议考虑采用双峰监管模式。

In recent years,financial risks have been apparent in such fields as stock market,real estate sector,bond market,internet finance and foreign exchange market,indicating that China has become vulnerable to rising financial risks.Meanwhile,its slower growth has led to declining return on investment of the real economy,produced large numbers of'zombie enterprises',and accumulated more financial risks.While rising leverages,ample liquidity and lack of investment opportunities have brought risks,some financial innovation activities,such as internet finance and shadow banking,have created new financial risks,although they have also benefited the real economy.Worse,it has become increasingly difficult for the government to continue to provide guarantee for such risky financial innovations.As a result,prevention of systemic financial risks has become China’s major economic priority.We suggest that the government should attach utmost importance to financial risks when it carried out its macroeconomic policies,especially monetary policies.It should also make it clear that it would not provide any guarantee for risk takers so that'zombie enterprises'can go bankrupt to resolve potential risks.It should also reform its financial regulatory framework,improve policy coordination,strengthen independence,professionalism and authority of regulatory bodies,and adopt a mixed regulatory mode.