解读中国的资本外逃

Estimation of China's Capital Flight

中国的跨境资本近期出现大规模流出,但目前尚没有关于资本外逃的官方统计。本文通过分析国际收支平衡表和国际投资头寸表中各个项目的头寸状况,以及二者之间的差异,间接推测中国是否存在资本外逃及其规模大小。根据统计数据,累计的经常项目顺差和海外净资产增加额之间的缺口可以分解为两个子缺口。其一是经常项目顺差和资本净输出之间的缺口,即国际收支平衡表上的"误差与遗漏"。其二是从资本净输出到海外净资产形成之间的缺口。本文分析表明,与其他发达国家相比,中国误差与遗漏账户不仅规模庞大,而且与汇率预期密切相关,很大程度上反映了资本外逃的规模和方向。此外,尽管一些跨境资本是通过正规渠道合法流出,但是在海外的资金可能以各种形式逃避监管,没有形成海外资产累计。中国政府采取了一系列措施抑制资本外逃,这种政策完全正确。但是,资本外逃问题的解决还有赖于中国经济体制、金融体系和汇率体制改革的进一步深化。

Since 2014,China’s capital flight has accelerated,but there have been no official statistics of capital flight available.By analyzing China’s Balance of Payments(Bo P)and International Investment Position(IIP)tables,this article tries to gauge the scale of China’s capital flight.In literature,the difference between current account surplus and the increase in net overseas assets over the same period of time is used as a proxy for capital flight.In reality,statistical errors and omissions also contribute to the difference.The difference between current account surplus and increase in net foreign assets(NFA),which,in theory,represents total capital flight,can be divided into two parts.One is the difference between current account surplus and net capital outflow(NCO),represented by Errors and Omissions(E&O)account in the balance of payments table.The other is difference between NCO and the changes in NFA.The article argues that errors and omissions in the Bo P table are mainly caused by capital flight rather than statistical inaccuracies.Compared with advanced economies,China’s E&O is not only large but also closely related to exchange rate expectations.This implies that the errors and omissions are not white noise,but that they are mainly a result of capital flight.Besides,although there are capitals that flow out of China legally and are not captured by errors and omissions account in the balance of payments table,they are capital flight in nature and hence have failed to translate into overseas assets owned by Chinese residents in the IIP table.The article discusses the'errors and omissions'in IIP table that are attributable to either statistical failures or capital flight.Now the Chinese government has taken a series of actions to curb capital flight,which is certainly correctand helpful.However,the fundamental solution lies in the deepening of reforms of China’s economic system,financial system and exchange rate regime.