欧洲投资计划能否重振欧洲投资?——基于欧洲投资银行挤入私人投资的经验研究

Can the Investment Plan for Europe Revitalize Investment in Europe?——From the Perspective of the Public Investment's Crowding-in Effect on Private Investment

欧洲投资计划旨在通过引入私人资本而重振欧洲投资。本文从公共投资挤入私人投资的视角探讨了其出台的理论背景、引入私人投资的具体机制以及预期效果。欧洲投资银行集团作为欧洲投资计划的执行载体,其现有的贷款、担保和股权投资等微观业务机制对于引入私人资本具有乘数效应。不过,本文针对欧投行对欧盟28国在2001-2015年贷款业务挤入私人投资的宏观效果进行实证检验,发现其对区域内私人投资虽有正面影响,却并不显著。这主要是因为欧投行贷款与欧盟私人投资规模存在巨大差距,故难以明显撬动区域投资。鉴于欧盟层面可用于支持投资的资源有限,各成员国应当更加积极地调动国内资源,形成多层次的投资支持体系。

The Investment Plan for Europe( IPE) aims to revitalize investment in Europe by catalyzing private investment. From the perspective of public investment's crowding-in effect on private investment,this paper discusses the theoretical background,crowding-in mechanism and expected outcomes of the Plan. As the operator of the European Fund for Strategic Investments( EFSI) which is the core of IPE,the European Investment Bank( EIB) Group is able to catalyze private capital by a multiplier of 1:15 through its financial instruments such as loan,guarantee and equity investment on the micro-level. However,using the panel data of EU28 from 2001 to 2015,the empirical results show insignificant crowding-in effect of EIB's loan on private investment on the macro-level,as the volume of EIB's loan is much smaller than that of private investment. The huge gaps between the loan of the EIB and EU's private investment make it difficult for the EIB to leverage regional investment. In view of the inadequate capital which can be used to support fixed asset investment on the EU level,the member countries should more actively mobilize domestic resources to establish a multi-layered investment support system.