中国股市泡沫的成因与对策

The Reasons for Bubbles in China's Stock Market and Its Solutions

泡沫属股市常态,但与境外成熟市场不同的是,中国股市泡沫呈现出结构性尤其制度性泡沫的特征。造成中国股市泡沫的因素是错综复杂的,但这些因素在不同时期的重要性显著不同,其中不变的和决定性的因素是制度,尤其退市制度以及与之紧密相关的监管制度和地方政府过度保护行为,这是绩差股成为狂热投机对象和泡沫膨胀的根源。因此,治本之策不是大幅增加股票供给,也不是推出注册制和做空机制,更不是让股市暴跌,而是厉行退市,这是中国股市走向规范成熟的关键。但退市是利益关系的重大调整,需要决策部门和监管部门拿出智慧、决断和勇气。

Bubbles are normal phenomena in stock markets,regardless of what kind of systems the countries practice.However,unlike some western developed and mature markets,stock market bubbles in China shows a structural operational defect,especially the institutional bubbles.There are many complicated reasons explaining these bubbles but these factors stress significantly different importance at different periods.Among them,the unchanged and determinant factor is the institution,more specifically,delisting system and the relevant administrative intervention as well as excessive local protectionism,which are the reasons why people chase underperforming equities enthusiastically and,what＇s worse,bubbles enlarge continuously.Therefore,one of the most effective ways should be to improve the existing delisting system,instead of increasing stock supplies,enforcing registration and short-selling mechanism,or causing stock market plummeting deliberately.That is the key to transferring the chaotic Chinese speculation market into a mature and regulated investment market.However,it requires wisdom,decisiveness and courage of decision-making and supervising departments to issue strict relative rules and regulations because delisting is an important adjustment of interest distribution.